Eclipse Day Cloud Coverage Model at T-186 Hours
At T-186, the overall forecast has improved somewhat for Northern Texas but downgraded for Central Ohio.
As usual, we will start our model breakdown with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The ECMWF is showing glimmers of hope for parts of Texas, although it has slightly downgraded its forecast for Arkansas as a result. Most of the rest of the band remains unchanged, with extreme pessimism continuing for Mazatlan.
Global Forecast System
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The main changes in the GFS from last report include a downgraded outlook for Indiana, Ohio, with upgraded prospects for Upstate New York and New England. Arkansas, Texas, and Mazatlan are still not looking great.
Global Environmental Multi-Scale Model
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The GEM has showed upgraded forecasts pretty much across the whole area of totality with perhaps the exception of Maine, which is slightly cloudier than last report. Texas, Arkansas, and Ohio still have patchy clouds scheduled.
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/aus/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
ACCESS had the most significant change amongst the models from last report, showing a well-developed front pushing through the Midwest and into Upstate New York turning the skies from Illinois to west of the Adirondacks dark. It also has significantly upgraded its forecast for Northern Texas and Arkansas, while holding its forecast for Missouri.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/jpn/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
It has been a minute since we looked at the JMA forecast, but this most recent run’s forecast remains unchanged for all points north of Missouri. Arkansas’ prospects look better, whilst Central Texas’ have diminished slightly.
T-186 Mean Cloud Forecast and Implications
The biggest difference over the last 12 hours is the slight improvements in the forecast for North Texas and Arkansas, whose prospects don’t look entirely bleak any longer. Mazatlan’s prospects have improved, as well. There is less consensus in Northeast Ohio than there once was. Southern Illinois and Upstate New York remain the safest bets.
The key factor here remains the front which will move through the area of totality around eclipse day. There is little agreement as to which path this front will take, and the next 48 hours will be very telling.
I’d still be hesitant to make any rash travel decisions given the unpredictable nature of this weather system.
T-186 Mean Cloud Forecast with Path of Totality
For quick reference, here is an approximate path of totality overlaid on the cloud coverage map.
I’ll be following up intermittently, so stay tuned for more!
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