Eclipse Day Cloud Coverage Model at T-198 Hours
At T-198, things are still looking not great for Texas but improving, while a few models have the forecast in Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, and Ohio looking clearer.
As usual, we will look at each available model, starting with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The ECMWF forecast has improved for the Ohio River Valley; however, it is still very pessimistic about Texas’ prospects for a clear day.
Global Forecast System
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
Similarly, the GFS model is more optimistic than it has been for Southern Illinois; it is more bearish for a clear day in Upstate New York and New England than it has been, however. Texas and Mazatlan are also given bleak outlooks.
Global Environmental Multi-Scale Model
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/can/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
The traditionally optimistic GEM model has lost its enthusiasm for a clear day in most of Ohio, parts of Upstate New York, and Arkansas. Areas north and west of San Antonio and Austin are improving, which suggests to me the GEM is projecting the front will move quicker across the Midwest and Central U.S. than other models are.
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator
Link to the original content: https://weather.us/model-charts/aus/usa/total-cloud-coverage/20240408-1800z.html
ACCESS has probably had the most dramatic change in projection over the past 12 hours. Parts of Texas and Arkansas have been upgraded slightly, and Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana are now looking favorable. Northeast Ohio has been downgraded, as have parts of Maine.
Japan Meteorological Agency
No JMA model was available for T-198.
T-198 Mean Cloud Forecast and Implications
The major change in the mean forecast in the last 12 hours is an ever-so-slight improvement in the outlook for Central Texas - not much, but trending in the right direction. Central Arkansas’ forecast has been downgraded ever so slightly, while Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana’s forecasts have improved marginally. There is now uncertainty in Northeast Ohio, but Upstate New York continues to be a safe bet. For those headed to Mazatlan, the projections do not concur entirely.
I think the takeaway here is that there is some type of weather front that will be moving through the area of totality during the eclipse. How slowly or how quickly this front moves through will strongly influence whether there are clouds or whether there are clear skies. Stay tuned!
T-198 Mean Cloud Forecast with Path of Totality
For quick reference, here is an approximate path of totality overlaid on the cloud coverage map.
I’ll be following up intermittently, so stay tuned for more in the coming days!
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